Another Abbreviated Big Weekend Edition for March 26th, 2017

Another chart free issue folks

FYI – Please excuse this weekend’s abbreviated Big Weekend Edition. I’m on my way back from Mexico with the family and the internet connection is a little hit-n-miss so there are no charts included with this update.

I would, however, like your input on what sort of format and layout you’d prefer for the Big Weekend Edition. We are going to create an entirely new site in the near future, and since you are the ones who have to read it – your opinion is the one that matters.

For example, would you like the markets broken out into groups such as Grains, Meats, etc., and covered more indepth on their own pages? That way you wouldn’t have to go through all the markets to pick out the ones you want to follow.

Send your feedback on the matter here.

1: CURRENCIES:
Opening Range Open Price: 5:20 (Pacific)/7:20 (Central)/8:20 (Eastern)

Australian Dollar FLAT

British Pound

Watch List – I’m getting to be more bullish on the British Pound after the market broke through trendline resistance last week. I’ll be on the lookout for support this week and an opportunity to buy the market higher. The problem I’m having buying at the current levels is I haven’t see how the market will respond to the 12600-ish resistance zone, where trading left off last week. If we see too strong of a push lower that might scare off the buyers; however a moderate push back will tell me the sellers aren’t strong enough and the buying should resume this week.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar finished last week on a bearish note, but still hasn’t closed below last week’s lows. This means the support zone is still intact and that could be a problem this week. One thing we have going for us is that we can use last week’s highs to cover the trade and take a few risk dollars out of play.

CONTINUATION of Short 1 June Canadian Dollar (6C) at 7480 (March 22)
Exit Stop: 7560 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $800
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

EuroFX FLAT
Japanese Yen FLAT

2: INDICES:
Opening Range Open Price: 6:30 (Pacific)/8:30 (Central)/9:30 (Eastern)

NASDAQ/Dow/S&P

This trade might be better reserved for day traders because of the large risk amount but it’s starting to look like the NASDAQ might be topping out. It’s still a little premature to say the trend has changed just yet, but if last week’s highs hold, the the fix is in and we should expect lower prices to follow. My trade suggestion is of the just-in-case variety. I suspect we’ll get a better shorting opportunity once the NQ retests the current highs.

If the June NASDAQ opens at or above 5300.00
SELL 1 June NASDAQ (NQ) at 5300.00 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 5450.00 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $3000
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: Moderate

Eurodollar FLAT

30 Year Bond

Bonds retraced Thursday’s range Friday but didn’t find my profit target, nor my stop loss. I’ll repeat the trade for Monday. Either we’ll see the market rally to my profit target or it will reverse and stop me out with profit. Either way it’s a win-win.

CONTINUATION of Long 1 June 30 year Bond at 149-00 (March 20)
Exit Stop: 150-00 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $0
Profit Target: 152-00 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $3000
Degree of Risk: Moderate

3: GRAINS:
Opening Range Open Price: 6:30 (Pacific)/8:30 (Central)/9:30 (Eastern)

Corn FLAT
Soybean Oil FLAT

Soybeans

Watch List – A perfect call in Beans got voided by the opening gap as prices drifted a few cents below our entry parameters. What else can you say but ‘Nuts’?

Wheat

Wheat held support going into the weekend but I’m not panicking just yet. I expect the market to pick up the downtrend again this week but if it doesn’t I’ll have to do something about my stops. In the meantime the plan is to let everything run “as is”. There’s strong resistance near our entry. I’m looking for the sellers to get back on board if prices rally back to the 430 area.

CONTINUATION of Short1 May Wheat (ZW) at 425 (March 21)
Exit Stop: 445 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $1000
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

4: MEATS:
Opening Range Open Price: 7:05 (Pacific)/9:05 (Central)/10:05 (Eastern)

Feeder Cattle FLAT
Live Cattle FLAT

Lean Hogs

A big sell off in Hogs found our short order Friday and the market finished near the lows, which is encouraging going into the weekend. Looking for the sellers to continue moving prices lower this week as well. I’m holding my stops “as is” for now.

CONTINUATION of Short 1 April Lean Hogs (HE) at 6750 (March 24)
Exit Stop: 7300 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $2200
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

5: METALS

Gold: Opening Range Open Price: 5:20 (Pacific)/7:20 (Central)/8:20 (Eastern) FLAT
Silver: Opening Range Open Price: 5:25 (Pacific)/7:25 (Central)/8:25 (Eastern) FLAT
Copper: Opening Range Open Price: 5:20 (Pacific)/7:20 (Central)/8:20 (Eastern) FLAT

6: SOFTS:
Opening Range Open Price: 6:30 (Pacific)/8:30 (Central)/9:30 (Eastern)

Cocoa

Is Cocoa gearing up for another run higher? The market held resistance but wasn’t able to do much with it. Prices continued to hold near last week’s highs. I’ll look to buy another rally higher but I’m a little confused about exactly where I want to put my entry. There’s a lot of resistance around here and I want to avoid getting into a trade that isn’t ready to rally yet. I think I’ll opt for a slightly looser entry in trade of a moving market.

If May Cocoa opens at or below 2230
BUY 1 May Cocoa (CC) at 2230 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 1980 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $2500
Degree of Risk: Moderate

Coffee FLAT
Sugar FLAT

7: ENERGIES:
Opening Range Open Price: 6:00 (Pacific)/8:00 (Central)/9:00 (Eastern)

Natural Gas

Watch List – Natural Gas finished the week up against long term resistance, again. I’m not totally convinced the market will continue to rally even though this is traditionally a more bullish time of the year for this commodity. The jury’s still out as to whether I’m going to try a trade here, or not.

Crude Oil

Crude Oil stalled again Friday and this is making me nervous. We essentially have a “double bottom” formed over the last couple week’s of trading and while the market fundamentals suggest lower prices are in the future that doesn’t rule out the possibility of a pullback in the meantime. But Crude is too expensive a market to get flippant with, so I’m going to put my stops in tight and look for the sellers to come back into the market Monday. Otherwise they can stop me out early.

CONTINUATION of Short 1 May Crude Oil (CL) at 4750 (March 22)
Exit Stop: 4880 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $1300
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: HIGH

Closed Commodity Pick Report Trades
March:

COMPLETION of Long March Japanese Yen (6J) at 89440 (February 6)
Exit Stop: 87500 (March 3)
Approximate Loss: $2425

COMPLETION of Short April Crude Oil (CL) at 5200 (March 8)
Profit Target: 4900 (March 9)
Approximate Profit: $3000

COMPLETION of Short May Bean Oil (ZL) at 3370 (March 7)
Profit Target: 3290 (March 10)
Approximate Profit: $480

COMPLETION of Short 1 March Feeder Cattle (GF) at 12300 (February 24)
Exit Stop: 12700 (March 10)
Approximate Loss: $2000

COMPLETION of Short May Copper (HG) at 26380 (February 23)
Profit Target: 25500 (March 13)
Approximate Profit: $450

COMPLETION of Long 1 May Cocoa (CC) at 1940 (March 3)
Profit Target: 2150 (March 21)
Approximate Profit: $2100

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