Abbreviated Big Weekend Edition for March 20th, 2017

FYI – Please excuse this weekend’s abbreviated Big Weekend Edition. I’m away in Mexico with the family and the internet connection is a little hit-n-miss so there are no charts included with this update.

1: CURRENCIES:
Opening Range Open Price: 5:20 (Pacific)/7:20 (Central)/8:20 (Eastern)

Australian Dollar

The Aussie Dollar came right back with support before the weekend and this might be all the bears are able to muster given the strong rally last Wednesday. I’ll consider buying on a breakout above the obvious resistance level on Monday but I need to run a pretty deep stop to start the position. With a bit of luck I’ll be able to adjust it soon. But this is a very strong resistance area so I want to be sure the buyers are serious before committing to the trade.

If the June Australian Dollar opens at or below 7720
BUY 1 June Australian Dollar (6A) at 7740 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 7470 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $2700
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

British Pound FLAT
Canadian Dollar FLAT
EuroFX FLAT
Japanese Yen FLAT

2: INDICES:
Opening Range Open Price: 6:30 (Pacific)/8:30 (Central)/9:30 (Eastern)

NASDAQ/Dow/S&P FLAT
Eurodollar FLAT

30 Year Bond

Did you notice how the Bonds reacted last week when they encountered the low end of the trading range? This tends to be a very bullish sign and confirms my suspicions that I bought the Bonds a little too early. This might still be a touch early but at least we know where the best place to cover the trade is below the contract lows. If the market continues lower this week I’ll consider tightening the entry order to suit what the market is doing.

If the June 30 year Bond opens at or below 149-00
BUY 1 June 30 year Bond at 149-00 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 145-16 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $3500
Profit Target: 152-00 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $3000
Degree of Risk: Moderate

3: GRAINS:
Opening Range Open Price: 6:30 (Pacific)/8:30 (Central)/9:30 (Eastern)

Corn

Corn continues to look weak as prices spent most of last week making a pullback style formation. I thought about shorting a break of the short term trend line below the recent lows, but decided to wait for a confirmation of resistance before shorting. I expect we’ll see something early this week.

Soybean Oil

Bean Oil keeps moving sideways and as such the market could go either way; however I’m favouring the short side because of the recent trend. If the market manages to close above 3250 I might reconsider my short bias.

If May Bean Oil opens at or above 3160
SELL 1 May Bean Oil (ZL) at 3160 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 3500 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $2040
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: Moderate

Soybeans

Soybeans is showing an awful lot of reaction around the 1000 support zone (May). The market can literally go either way from here but there is serious downside momentum so I’ll look at selling instead of buying. Seasonally this tends to be a stronger time of the year for this market; however Bean sales still boil down to basic supply and demand issues. A break of support should confirm the sellers are in control.

If May Soybeans opens at or above 990
SELL 1 May Soybeans (ZL) at 990 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 1060 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $3500
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: HIGH

Wheat

Watch List – Wheat is setting up nicely for another shorting opportunity but not just yet. Hopefully we’ll see resistance confirm at the beginning of the week. That will be my cue to short.

4: MEATS:
Opening Range Open Price: 7:05 (Pacific)/9:05 (Central)/10:05 (Eastern)

Feeder Cattle FLAT
Live Cattle FLAT

Lean Hogs

Watch List – Hogs are making a near perfect pennant formation but given the bounce off support last week I’m leaning to the bullish side for the next trade. I need to see a confirmation of support before committing. I expect to see something early this week.

5: METALS

Gold:
Opening Range Open Price: 5:20 (Pacific)/7:20 (Central)/8:20 (Eastern) FLAT

Silver:
Opening Range Open Price: 5:25 (Pacific)/7:25 (Central)/8:25 (Eastern)

I thought about letting the Silver trade slide for a few more days but I’m concerned the market might bolt in the meantime. There is considerable resistance at the 1750.0 area and this might be enough to bounce the market lower again. I’m not planning on entering the trade too early though. It is Silver after all. This market can make some really wild moves!

If May Silver opens at or above 1682.0
SELL 1 May Silver (ZS) at 1682.0 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 1760.0 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $3500
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: HIGH

Copper:
Opening Range Open Price: 5:20 (Pacific)/7:20 (Central)/8:20 (Eastern) FLAT

6: SOFTS: Opening Range Open Price: 6:30 (Pacific)/8:30 (Central)/9:30 (Eastern)

Cocoa

Cocoa still hasn’t broken through resistance and continues in pullback mode. The big decision now is whether to take the profit we have or try to ride the market out for a bigger move. My best opportunity for taking profit was last week so I guess I’m committed to holding out for the bigger move now.

CONTINUATION of Long 1 May Cocoa (CC) at 1940 (March 3)
Exit Stop: 1970 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $0
Profit Target: 2150 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $2100
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

Coffee FLAT
Sugar FLAT

7: ENERGIES:
Opening Range Open Price: 6:00 (Pacific)/8:00 (Central)/9:00 (Eastern)

Natural Gas

Natural Gas has been making a pretty sustained pullback these last few weeks; however now the market is up against long term resistance making it suitable for a short this week below the lows. The market finished the week with support so we know there’s some buying going on here; however a move lower should at least see the market fall to recent support. This isn’t the strongest setup, but it should be able to hit the profit target on a move lower.

If May Natural Gas opens at or above 2940
SELL 1 May Natural Gas (NG) at 2940 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 3150 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $2100
Profit Target: 2840 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $1000
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

Crude Oil

Watch List – I still think Crude’s heading lower but I don’t know from where to sell it yet. Still looking for strong resistance from which to short.

Closed Commodity Pick Report Trades

March 2017:

COMPLETION of Long March Japanese Yen (6J) at 89440 (February 6)
Exit Stop: 87500 (March 3)
Approximate Loss: $2425

COMPLETION of Short April Crude Oil (CL) at 5200 (March 8)
Profit Target: 4900 (March 9)
Approximate Profit: $3000

COMPLETION of Short May Bean Oil (ZL) at 3370 (March 7)
Profit Target: 3290 (March 10)
Approximate Profit: $480

COMPLETION of Short 1 March Feeder Cattle (GF) at 12300 (February 24)
Exit Stop: 12700 (March 10)
Approximate Loss: $2000

COMPLETION of Short May Copper (HG) at 26380 (February 23)
Profit Target: 25500 (March 13)
Approximate Profit: $450

February: $1024 loss
January 2017: $5450 loss

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