Big Weekend Edition for June 18, 2018

“I’d rather be out of a market wishing I was in, than in a market wishing I was out” – Anonymous

CURRENCIES: Opening Range Open Price: 5:20 (Pacific)/7:20 (Central)/8:20 (Eastern)

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar trade is starting off nicely as prices continued lower into the weekend. Friday’s session seemed to have some momentum to it as it gapped lower from Thursday’s close. The big test will be the contract lows which are just below. When/If the market trades below the lows there’s a good chance the bears will make a solid push lower.

CONTINUATION of Short 1 September Australian Dollar (6A) 7500 (June 14)
Exit Stop: 7650 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $1500
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

Australian Dollar Chart

British Pound

The British Pound also made a move lower last week; however Friday’s session bounced a bit confirming the support at the 13300 price zone (September). The good news is that this bounce also provides the ideal price from which to sell below should the sellers continue moving the market lower this week.

If the September British Pound opens at or above 13250
SELL 1 September British Pound (6B) at 13250 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 13500 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $1562
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

Japanese Yen

The Yen is very conflicted at the moment. Prices tried to rally but couldn’t get very far. Likewise to the recent attempt to move the market lower. It seems to be very content where it is trading right now and hasn’t given a clear indication of which way it might go from here. Couple that with the fact the market is still trading within a very large, very broad trading range and it’s almost time to flip a coin: heads we buy; tails we sell.

But I’m going to follow a similar plan to the British Pound trade and use Friday’s support as a level to sell below. I’m not sure if the market can get below here, as this is the second bounce off this price zone, but if it does it will probably catch buyers on the wrong side of the trade and force them to exit quickly, and that could be good for the shorts.

I have to admit however, the recent ranges are looking a lot like a bull flag, so if support holds I’ll be quick to change my mind and look at a possible buy.

If the September Japanese Yen opens at or above 90400
SELL 1 September Japanese Yen (6J) at 90400 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 92400 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $2500
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: HIGH

Canadian Dollar FLAT

EuroFX FLAT

2: INDICES: Opening Range Open Price: 6:30 (Pacific)/8:30 (Central)/9:30 (Eastern)

Emini-S&P FLAT

30 Year Bond FLAT

3: GRAINS: Opening Range Open Price: 6:30 (Pacific)/8:30 (Central)/9:30 (Eastern)

Corn

The Corn market stalled a little going into the weekend, but that’s not a big surprise. Traders typically get FLAT grain trades when they’re not sure what the weather might do, but so far it’s an all out bear market for Corn. I’m taking a chance and holding my stops above the last swing for Monday but I’ll get aggressive quickly when/if the buyers show up.

CONTINUATION of Short 1 July Corn (ZC) at 393 (May 30)
Exit Stop: 380 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $0
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

Soybean Oil FLAT

Soybeans FLAT

Wheat FLAT

4: MEATS: Opening Range Open Price: 6:30 (Pacific)/8:30 (Central)/9:30 (Eastern)

Feeder Cattle FLAT

Live Cattle FLAT

5: METALS

Gold: Opening Range Open Price: 5:20 (Pacific)/7:20 (Central)/8:20 (Eastern)
FLAT

Silver: Opening Range Open Price: 5:25 (Pacific)/7:25 (Central)/8:25 (Eastern)

Friday reminded me of why I hardly ever trade Silver anymore. Remember what I said about the potential for a quick and violent reversal? Well that’s exactly what Silver delivered on Friday. I haven’t gotten stopped out yet, but it’s almost a given for Monday.

CONTINUATION of Long 1 July Silver (SI) at 17000 (June 13)
Exit Stop: 16400 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $3000
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: HIGH

Copper: Opening Range Open Price: 5:20 (Pacific)/7:20 (Central)/8:20 (Eastern)
FLAT

6: SOFTS: Opening Range Open Price: 6:30 (Pacific)/8:30 (Central)/9:30 (Eastern)

Cocoa FLAT

Coffee FLAT

Sugar

I took the early stop out in Sugar on Friday and I think at the end of the day I’ll be glad I did. The market isn’t performing as expected so I might as well get out early and reassess the situation.

COMPLETION of Long July Sugar (SB) at 1250 (June 11)
Exit Stop: 1200 (June 15)
Approximate Loss: $560

7: ENERGIES: Opening Range Open Price: 6:00 (Pacific)/8:00 (Central)/9:00 (Eastern)

Natural Gas FLAT

Crude Oil

In hindsight I suppose I could have been more aggressive shorting Crude Oil and getting a better price, but I sold the market all the same on Friday. I’ll have to hold my stops for Monday and hopefully prices will continue lower below support and give me a chance to adjust the trade a bit.

CONTINUATION of Short 1 July Crude Oil (CL) at 6450 (June 15)
Exit Stop: 6750 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $3000
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: HIGH

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