Big Weekend Edition: Next to last issue

Just a quick reminder that this is the next to last issue of the Big Weekend Edition. As of July 27, 2018, we’ll be suspending the nightly and weekend updates.

Even though we won’t be producing the nightly/weekend content please feel free to write me with any market/trading questions you might have. I’ll be sure to give you my input. We will still be releasing updates from time to time; however they won’t be on the usual schedule.

Thank you for your readership these last 16 years. It means a lot to me.

Sincerely,

Erich

Charts in this issue: Cocoa, Gold, Corn, Bonds, British Pound.

1: CURRENCIES: Opening Range Open Price: 5:20 (Pacific)/7:20 (Central)/8:20 (Eastern)

Australian Dollar FLAT

British Pound

The British Pound is really beating up on the support in the 13200 zone. Last Friday saw a very bearish/bullish doji form when prices tried (unsuccessfully) to break through. This confirms the balanced nature of the market and makes me think a breakout lower might carry some momentum, so I’m going to continue with the original plan for this week as well. I’ll adjust the trade to reflect the recent trading ranges.

If the September British Pound opens at or above 13100
SELL 1 September British Pound (6B) at 13100 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 13400 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $1875
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

Canadian Dollar

Watch List – I’m cautiously bearish on the Canadian Dollar especially in light of the resistance last Wednesday. But the rally from the week before is giving me pause as the buyers haven’t been that strong for a while. I’ll give the trade a little longer to convince me the sellers have it under control.

EuroFX FLAT
Japanese Yen FLAT

2: INDICES: Opening Range Open Price: 6:30 (Pacific)/8:30 (Central)/9:30 (Eastern)

Emini-S&P FLAT

30 Year Bond

The Stock market keeps looking weaker and that in turn will make the Bond market look stronger. Last week we saw Bonds adhere to the ascending trendline and so far it’s look like the bulls are going to make a run at the top end of the trading range (again).

If the September 30 Year Bond opens at or below 146-18
BUY 1 September 30 Year Bond (ZB) at 146-18 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 143-00 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $3562
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

3: GRAINS: Opening Range Open Price: 6:30 (Pacific)/8:30 (Central)/9:30 (Eastern)

Corn

Corn sellers stalled going into the weekend but the week did finish on a bearish note, which is good for my short position. I’ll roll stops in above last week’s mini-swing high and take some of the risk out the trade. But if the bears break last week’s low there’s some room to move here!

CONTINUATION of Short 1 September Corn (ZC) at 345 (July 10)
Exit Stop: 351 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $300
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

Soybean Oil FLAT
Soybeans FLAT
Wheat FLAT

4: MEATS: Opening Range Open Price: 6:30 (Pacific)/8:30 (Central)/9:30 (Eastern)

Feeder Cattle FLAT
Live Cattle FLAT

5: METALS

Gold: Opening Range Open Price: 5:20 (Pacific)/7:20 (Central)/8:20 (Eastern)

I might be a little late to this party, but Gold made a nice reaction lower last week before confirming support at the 1240 zone (August). I’ll look to sell the market on a break below the lows this week. Nothing fancy, just a continuation trade.

If August Gold opens at or above 1234.0
SELL 1 August Gold (GC) at 1234.0 (day)(GTC)

If filled: Exit Stop: 1267.0 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $3300
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: HIGH

Silver: Opening Range Open Price: 5:25 (Pacific)/7:25 (Central)/8:25 (Eastern) FLAT
Copper: Opening Range Open Price: 5:20 (Pacific)/7:20 (Central)/8:20 (Eastern) FLAT

6: SOFTS: Opening Range Open Price: 6:30 (Pacific)/8:30 (Central)/9:30 (Eastern)

Cocoa

I’m still betting on a Bearish Cocoa market because that’s the last trend before the market went sideways. Cocoa’s gave a lot of bull bars last week but so far they didn’t go anywhere. Rather the resistance keeps holding which is why I’ll look to sell. I’ve adjusted the trade to reflect the recent ranges.

If September Cocoa opens at or above 2400
SELL 1 September Cocoa (CC) at 2400 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 2600 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $2000
Profit Target: TBA
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

Coffee FLAT
Sugar FLAT

7: ENERGIES: Opening Range Open Price: 6:00 (Pacific)/8:00 (Central)/9:00 (Eastern)

Natural Gas FLAT
Crude Oil FLAT

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